http://committees.jsce.or.jp/hydraulic/node/25
這個講演會是日本土木學會水工學委員會每年最重要的場子，也是老闆要求畢業前一定去投，審查也更嚴格的論文集，約20%是英文paper。
每篇論文限定6頁，但好處是審查時間短，每年9/1~9/30徵稿，12月中旬即會得到審查結果，隔年3月每篇被接受的文章必須口頭報告，還要繳交26900日元的刊登費，且每人限報告一篇。
本回水工講演會的議程及所有論文題目在此：
http://committees.jsce.or.jp/hydraulic/system/files/suiko58program140221.pdf
因論文集(光碟)是另外販售的，網路上目前只提供前幾年的文章免費下載，有興趣的可以參考以下連結：
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/browse/prohe1990/-char/ja/
另，我的paper在此，有興趣請自行下載~~~ :)
https://app.box.com/s/hsbmfhcyqwiaa4oss4mm
A METHOD FOR PREDICTING LANDSLIDES ON A BASIN SCALE USING WATER CONTENT INDICATOR
Chen-Yu
CHEN1 and Masaharu FUJITA2
1Member
of JSCE, Graduate
Student, Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering, Kyoto
University (Katsura Campus,
Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto, 615-8540, Japan)
2Member
of JSCE, Dr.
of Eng., Professor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
(Shimomisu, Yoko-oji, Fushimi-ku,
Kyoto 612-8235, Japan)
Abstract
Generally, the methods of predicting landslides can be divided into two types - statistical model and numerical model. Compared with the statistical model, the numerical model can provide more detail and precise result, but is difficult to employ on basin-scale because of time-consuming calculation. This paper proposed a novel method, which was based on numerical model and multiple regressions as well as using the slope unit as the slope-stability analysis target, to predict the landslides on a basin scale. This method used a new warning indicator, critical water content (Wcr), which is derived from numerical model and had a clear physical meaning. The new method also had great performance on calculation to predict the occurring time and the locations of landslides. The heavy rainfall disaster occurring in the Shizugawa basin in 2012, located in Uji, Kyoto, was simulated by the new method. The results showed that the new method can not only predict the landslides but also estimate the runoff of the slopes on a basin scale.簡單來說，現行台灣或日本的土砂災害警戒模式都只有考慮雨量因子，並未納入(或過度簡化了)地質或地形因素，所以只能作廣域的土砂災害警戒，僅能提供災害可能發生與否的資訊，無法提供較明確的可能發生時間、風險、地點與規模，對於第一線執行疏散決策的地方政府或是民眾來說，這樣的資訊是不足的。本研究將提出一種新的作法，以斜坡單元為警戒單元，整合數值模式與多元迴歸模式，發展一個流域尺度的崩塌警戒系統，後續並作為未來發展鄉鎮層級的複合型土砂災害警戒系統。
至於會場內如發現有趣議題，待結束後再抽空與大家分享。
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