==================== 我是分隔線 ======================
首先，先說明這是水利工程的研討會，其領域從基本的水理、水文、海岸、生態、砂防等分布極廣，我只就與我目前研究相關的議題作簡單分享。
一、整體感想：
- 水文類的論文，與氣候變遷議題相關的比例非常高，特別是國際session的部份，一大堆英文論文都是用IPCC的預測，去評估河川、流域在未來變化的趨勢。似乎這是個量產paper的好方法~~ XD
- 各國的留學生，大多以自己國家的案例去發表~~ (其實我也想啊~~)
- 日文撰寫的paper不論在量(廢話)與質上，個人認為似乎還是比英文部份好。
二、個別論文心得：
(一)以雨量為指標之崩塌預警系統這篇作者也是來自台灣，作法與傳統上以長、短期二個雨量參數作為預警指標的方法相同。不過，比較特別的是，因其使用之災例是山區公路崩塌災害，故在劃設臨界線時，所使用的災例，已先依災害造成封路時間長短，區分其災害規模，並依此劃設「Warning 」「Alert」「Action」三個警戒臨界線。
DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
FOR GEOTECHNICAL MULTI-HAZARDS
INDUCED BY RAINFALL
Chao-Wen Wang1, Tadashi YAMADA2
1Student Member of JSCE, Graduated School of Science and Engineering, Chuo University
(1-13-27, Kasuga,Bunkyo-ku,Tokyo 112-8551, Japan)
2 Fellow of JSCE, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University
(1-13-27, Kasuga,Bunkyo-ku,Tokyo 112-8551, Japan)
Due to the global climate changes, the scale and frequency of natural disasters are more difficult topredict and measure. Extreme rainfall often brings astonishing amount of water and causes very serious
damage in the mountain areas. For instances, during typhoon Morakot in 2009, many roadways and
bridges were destroyed by the rainfall in south Taiwan; furthermore, the typhoon Megi brought amazing
hourly rainfall to damage the Highway No.9 in I-lan County at 2010. Facing the challenges from the
extreme weather conditions, the development of an early warning system has become a critical issue.
Therefore, in the proposed study, the authors collected the field data of landslides and debris flows in
No.18 Highway of middle Taiwan. And the authors collected the rainfall records of typhoons and storms
from 2008 to 2012. Pattern recognition analysis was conducted to identify typical precipitation patterns
that would cause slope failures and related debris flows. Threshold rainfall intensities and rainfall
amounts that would possibly trigger the failures were chosen as two indices and their applicability based
on different theoretical or empirical approaches from the selected precipitation patterns. Correlation
between triggering rainfall indices and occurrences of landslides is to be established through this analysis.
Key Words : Slope Failure, Multi-hazards, Rainfall, Early Warning System
(二)整合分散式降雨-逕流模式於洪水預測模式
一般流域之降雨-逕流預測模式，常使用單位斜面與單位流槽方式模擬，如未考慮流域中部份地區淹水時，會降低下游之洪峰量，則洪峰預測結果會如圖11之綠線部份，出現高估現象。此研究使用分散式降雨-逕流模式模擬局部地區淹水情形，在降低計算量之前提下，將局部地區淹水影響下游洪峰之現象作出不錯的模擬結果。
分布型流出モデルをネスティングする
流出・氾濫一体型モデルの構築
DEVELOPMENT OF A FLOOD-INUNDATION MODEL NESTING
A DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL
田中智大1・立川康人2・萬和明3
Tomohiro TANAKA, Yasuto TACHIKAWA and Kazuaki YOROZU
1 学生会員京都大学大学院工学研究科(〒615-8540 京都市西京区京都大学桂C1)
2 正会員博(工) 京都大学准教授大学院工学研究科(〒615-8540 京都市西京区京都大学桂C1)
3 正会員博(工) 京都大学助教大学院工学研究科(〒615-8540 京都市西京区京都大学桂C1)
An impact assessment of a risk of water-related disaster under a changing climate has been highlyconcerned recently. For the assessment, it is important to examine a change of the magnitude of inundation
disasters as well as that of flow regime under various climate conditions. To make an ensemble assessment
of the magnitude of inundation disaster, systematic and computational cost-effective simulation is required.
In this research, a flood-inundation model which nests a distributed rainfall-runoff model and is applicable
to any part of a basin was developed. The developed model was successfully applied to the Shirakawa
River catchment in Kyushu, Japan.
Key Words: inundation simulation, distributed rainfall-runoff model, nesting, climate change
(三)未來極端降雨想定下，洪水災損之評估方式
簡單地說，即是以未來想定之極端降雨情形下，可能淹水的範圍與土地及地上物價值之關係推估災損金額。台灣之前也有作過不少類似的研究，僅列其土地利用災損評估單價供參。
極値降雨，流出量に基づく
洪水被害推定およびその将来変化
FLOOD DAMAGE ESTIMATIONS BASED ON EXTREME PRECIPITATION AND
DISCHARGE AND VARIATION IN THE FUTURE
手塚 翔也1・小野 桂介1・風間 聡2・小森 大輔3
Shoya TEZUKA, Keisuke ONO, So KAZAMA and Daisuke KOMORI
1学生会員 東北大学大学院工学研究科（〒980-8579 宮城県仙台市青葉区荒巻字青葉6-6-06）
2正会員 博（工） 東北大学大学院工学研究科（〒980-8579 宮城県仙台市青葉区荒巻字青葉6-6-06）
3正会員 博（工） 東北大学大学院環境科学研究科（〒980-8579 宮城県仙台市青葉区荒巻字青葉6-6-20）
This study presented a method to assess the economical flood damages based on a hydraulic model,which took into account a spatial distribution of extreme precipitation estimated by statistical and
meteorological characteristics. In order to estimate variation of precipitation in the future, we used
cumulative distribution function of precipitation that was outputted by GCMs. The potential economic
damage in 2100 (RCP8.5 scenario) for a flood of 100-year return period was estimated to be 107 billion
USD. We evaluated the effect of flood control level using some GCMs with scenarios.
Key Words: return period, climate change, hydraulic model
(四)考慮降雨量變化情形下之水災風險評估方式
這篇報告的很糟，時間到了，講者連研究方法都還沒講完。
不過，他所提出的式子，我覺得可以參考看看。
降水量頻度分布を考慮した
水害リスク評価手法の開発
A NEW METHODOLOGY TO ASSESS IMPACTS OF PRECIPITATION CHANGE ON FLOOD RISK
平野淳平1・大楽浩司2
Junpei HIRANO, koji DAIRAKU
1正会員 理博 防災科学技術研究所（茨城県つくば市天王台３－１）
2正会員 工博 防災科学技術研究所（茨城県つくば市天王台３－１）
We attempted to develop a new methodology for flood risk assessment in the Tokyo metropolitan area by considering the effect of precipitation change. By comparing the statistical distribution of the daily precipitation frequency for the whole study period, and those for flood occurrence days, we found that the distributions of the precipitation frequency for the flood occurrence days are corresponding to those for the whole study period. These results indicate that we can estimate flood damage based on frequency of daily precipitation. Based on these results, we estimated the flood damage for Tokyo based on distribution of daily precipitation frequency. We then created a flood-risk curve that represented the relationship between damage and exceeding probability of a flood. By comparing the newly developed flood-risk curve, based on the precipitation frequency, with those in the previous studies, we indicated that a newly developed flood-risk curve could evaluate the potential flood risk with high accuracy.Key Words: flood risk curve, precipitation, change, tokyo metropolitan area
(五)分級化氣象警報對民眾災害認知程度之分析
簡單講，民眾接獲「等級化」的警報(例如：level 4)，與接獲用「純文字描述」的警報(例如：super warning)，前者之疏散意願較高。 不過，我一直想問，如果改用「顏色」，效果是否會更好呢??? 只是當天一直沒機會直接問牛山教授。
題外話，這位同是京大畢業的牛山教授，他的研究方法好像十幾年來都沒變過啊~~~
又，他的主題跟這個水工學好像也有點差距???
レベル化された気象警報に対する
情報利用者の認識
AN ANALYSIS OF UNDERSTANDING OF USERS
FOR GRADED WEATHER WARNING INFORMATION
牛山素行1
Motoyuki USHIYAMA
1正会員 博(農)・博(工) 静岡大学教授 (〒422-8529 静岡市駿河区大谷836)
The weather warning is important disaster prevention information. Understanding of Internet usersfor weather warning information was researched based on Internet questionary survey in March 2013.
The respondent who understood the correct meaning of a traditional weather warning was only 43%.
The traditional warning is, so to speak, “plain text warning information”. It is difficult to announce the
risk of the disaster only by “plain text warning information”. Therefore we asked about graded warning
with numerical level. Respondents who chose “When a warning of level 4 was announced, I will
evacuate.” were 38% of all respondents. On the other hand, respondents who chose “When the super
warning was announced, I will evacuate.” were only 27%. The “super warning” is “plain text warning”
that is equal to a warning of level 4. The answer "graded warning was simply" was 50%. On the other
hand, the answer "plain text warning was simply" was 28%. It is possible that graded warning is more
effective than plain text warning.
Key Words : weather warning, disaster prevention information, plain text warning, graded
warning.
(六)全球尺度的即時洪水預測系統
是的，您沒看錯。是全球尺度的即時預測。
它可以即時預測(1天2回，可預測未來84hr之情形)主要河川流量，淹水範圍、影響人口，對於防災之評估有重大助益。
嗯~~ 所以研究嘛，要嘛就作大大大大大一點，要嘛就作小小小小一點，才是王道。
這個系統在這：http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~kei/Earth/
陸面・河川氾濫モデルによる
洪水影響人口の全球実時間算定システムの構築
DEVELOPMENT OF A GLOBAL FLOOD AFFECTED POPULATION
REAL-TIME CALCULATION SYSTEM
WITH A LAND SURFACE-FLOOD INUNDATION MODEL
鳩野 美佐子¹・芳村 圭²・山崎 大³・沖 大幹⁴
Misako HATONO, Kei YOSHIMURA, Dai YAMAZAKI and Taikan OKI
¹学生会員 東京大学大学院 工学系研究科社会基盤学専攻（〒153-8505 東京都目黒区駒場4-6-1）
²正会員 工博 東京大学准教授 大気海洋研究所（〒277-8568 千葉県柏市柏の葉5-1-5）
³正会員 工博 研究員 University of Bristol, School of Geograph. Sci. (University Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK)
⁴正会員 工博 東京大学教授 生産技術研究所（〒153-8505 東京都目黒区駒場4-6-1）
Damage caused by floods can sometimes be catastrophic. When focusing on lessening thefatalities/victims, knowledge of a flood even just a day in advance could make a difference. Therefore,
this research aims to develop a global real time calculation system for flood affected population. A new
river model, CaMa-Flood, is introduced into the framework of Today’s Earth, a real time calculation
system for various hydrological aspects. Gridded population data was then combined to calculate the
number of estimated affected population. Validations for the outputs of this system were conducted using
multiple observation data. Comparison with floods in 2013 showed that this system was able to detect the
occurrence of floods to a certain degree.
Key Words : Flood, real-time calculation, affected people
(七)水災疏散時，車輛疏散模式
這個也很有趣。一般在疏散避難規劃時，其實若不考慮實際的交通問題，就會說出那種
「行政院長江宜樺今天表示，若大台北發生大規模複合式災害，需安置災民，規劃是往中南部移動，有辦法收容數百萬人。」的冷笑話~~~
自動車の行動特性を考慮した
水害避難行動モデル
CAR BEHAVIOR MODEL USED IN SIMULATING FLOOD EVACUATION
花島健吾1・和田洋介2・堀智晴3・野原大督4
Kengo HANAJIMA, Yousuke WADA, Tomoharu HORI and Daisuke NOHARA
1学生会員 修(地環) 京都大学大学院 都市社会工学専攻博士課程（〒615-8530 京都市西京区）
2学生会員 学(工) 京都大学大学院 都市社会工学専攻修士課程（〒615-8530 京都市西京区）
3正会員 博(工) 京都大学教授 防災研究所水資源環境研究センター （〒611-0011 宇治市五ヶ庄）
4正会員 博(工) 京都大学助教 防災研究所水資源環境研究センター （〒611-0011 宇治市五ヶ庄）
Although it is important to retain the flood water within the river channels by using dikes andreservoirs, these facilities alone cannot cope with excessive floods. In Japan, appropriate combination of
facility-based and non-facility-based countermeasures is getting more important. To determine nonfacility-
based countermeasures, we need to simulate flood hazardous situation. However, simulation
models which include only evacuating on foot are not enough because our society and our lifestyles are
based on using cars.
In this study, we developed a model to express the behavior of the car in three simple modes. This
enables us to simulate the car's actions in a realistic manner at least. The performances of this model have
been tested in the several simulation results in actual flood-plain areas in Japan.
(八)災後河道變化與土砂收支評估
這篇的內容，與我下一階段研究有點類似，所參考的文獻也有好幾篇相同。先記錄，有空再來細看。
2011年12号台風における旭川の河道変化と
土砂収支に関する研究
SEDIMENT BUDGET AND RIVER CHANNEL CHANGE FROM 12th
TYPHOON(2011) IN THE ASAHI RIVER BASIN
塚本洋祐1・江口武彦2・福岡捷二3
Yosuke TSUKAMOTO, Takehiko EGUCHI and Shoji FUKUOKA
1正会員 工修 中央大学大学院理工学研究科 都市環境学専攻（〒112-8551 東京都文京区春日1-13-27）
2正会員関西電力株式会社 土木建築室 土木グループ (〒530-8270 大阪府大阪市北区中之島3-6-16)
3フェロー Ph.D 工博 中央大学研究開発機構教授（〒112-8551 東京都文京区春日1-13-27）
In the Asahi River, heavy rainfall from 12th typhoon(2011) had caused the river channel blockade by sediment discharge due to slope failure and debris flow. These phenomena make large amount of sediment flow into the river shortly, and it changes the river channel characteristics, such as channel shape, aggradation, and grain size distribution. So, it is important to evaluate the sediment transport in river basin scale. In this study, first, we clarified the points of slope failure and the characteristic change in river channel by large-scale sediment discharge using observed data and air photographs. In order to estimate the quantity of sediment discharge, numerical analysis of flood flow, slope failure and debris flow was made. Furthermore, we evaluated sediment budget in the Asahi River basin, and suggested the effectiveness of sediment bypass tunnel.Key Words : sediment discharge, debris flow, slope failure, numerical model, sediment budget
参考文献
1) 長田健吾，福田朝生，山下克己，福岡捷二：旭ダム排砂バイ
パストンネルによる石礫の排出機構および下流河道の瀬淵の
回復，水工学論文集，第56巻，pp.57-62，2012.
2) 高橋保，井上素行，中川一，里深好文：山岳流域における土
砂流出の予測，水工学論文集，第44巻，pp.717-722，2000.
3) 平澤良輔，里深好文，水山高久，堤大三：山地流域の雨水流
出，土砂生産流出シミュレータ（SERMOW-Ⅱ）の開発と適
用，砂防学会誌，Vol.64，No.5，pp.32-37，2012.
4) 原田紀臣，里深好文：活発な土砂生産・土砂流出を考慮した
洪水予測技術に関する研究，河川技術論文集，第19巻，
pp.217-222，2013.
5) 市川温，佐藤康弘，椎葉充晴，立川康人，宝馨：山地流域に
おける水・土砂動態モデルの構築，京都大学防災研究所年報，
第42号，B-2，pp.211-224，1999.
6) 永谷言，水野直弥，石田裕哉，小澤和也，寶馨：分布型流出
モデルの斜面崩壊予測への応用，土木学会論文集F5（土木
技術者実践），Vol.68，No.1，pp.16-26，2012.
7) 江頭進治，松木敬：河道貯留土砂を対象とした流出土砂の予
測法，水工学論文集，第44巻，pp.735-740，2000.
8) 判田乾一，吉田俊康，野村昌弘，内田太郎，鈴木拓郎，鈴木
拓郎，道畑亮一，菊井稔宏，宮瀬将之，宮田直樹：堆積速度
係数が河床変動計算に及ぼす影響：平成7年姫川災害の事例
を用いた検討，砂防学会研究発表概要集，pp.98-99，2012
(九)極端氣候資料下使用設計雨型之洪水模擬
這篇是與台灣NCDR的江申博士合作的內容，不過發表的木村博士講得~~ 嗯~~ BJ4
可能還是得江博自己來講比較好~~ :)
HYDROLOGICAL FLOOD SIMULATION BASED UPON DESIGN HYETOGRAPH USING EXTREME WEATHER DATA BY A HIGH-RESOLUTION CLIMATE MODEL
Nobuaki KIMURA 1, Shen CHIANG 2 and Akira TAI 3
1Member of JSCE, Ph.D, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Kyushu University (744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 8910395, Japan)
Email: nkimura3@civil.kyushu-u.ac.jp
2Dr. Eng., National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR), (Sindian, New Taipei 231, Taiwan)
3Member of JSCE, Dr. Eng., Assistant Professor, Dept. of Civil Engineering, Kyushu University
(744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka 8910395, Japan)
With design hyetographs, created by different ranking methods for the duration (24 h or 72 h) and a 100-year-return-period rainfall depth, a hydrological model simulated the peaks of discharge for extreme rainfalls in a southern Taiwan watershed under climate change. The discharge peak with the conventional ranking method can be overestimated by an enhanced effect of the temporal distribution’s shapes of lower-intensity rainfalls. To reduce the overestimation, the peak-weighted and cumulative-rainfall -depth-weighted ranking (cumulative-depth ranking) methods determined by the shape characteristics of rainfalls are introduced into this study. For the peak-ranking method, the discharge peaks did not change those of the conventional method even in longer duration (72 h) of design hyetograph. The cumulative-depth ranking method resulted in at most 15% reduction of the peak from the conventional one. Under the effect of climate change, the cumulative-depth ranking method reduced the discharge peaks by approximately 4% for 24-h duration and approximately 15% for 72-h one, respectively.Key Words : Flood, Design hyetograph, Tsengwen reservoir watershed, Climate change
沒有留言:
張貼留言